Back to Reality

Well, that was fun while it lasted, but back to reality.  The reality is poll after poll shows Donald Trump winning.  This is usually attributed to Biden being too old or maybe a general sense of discontent.  If the issue is simply Biden being too old, then the response is to find someone younger, who would easily defeat the unpopular Trump.  Or, if it is Biden's association with a specific issue, such as inflation or the war in Gaza, find an alternative without that baggage.

The trouble is that none of the alternatives seem to do any better.  All of them have their own weakness.  Biden is too old.  Gavin Newsome is from California.  Kamala Harris is not seen as up to to the job.  And so forth. 

All of this makes me think that the real problem is not with Joe Biden or any particular candidate.  It is a basic sense of discontent.  Republicans are outraged at a Democrat in the White House and will never be happy until the travesty is ended.  Democrats are hopelessly split on what they want and any attempt to please one wing of the party will end up alienating another.  

By contrast, I think Trump has the advantage of nostalgia.  Ex-presidents are invariably more popular out of office than they were while in office.  (GW Bush is a notable exception).  We have problems these days.  We had problems when Trump was in office, too, but people tend to view the past through a rosy haze and idealize it.  Look how popular Obama is now, compared to when he was in office.  Thus I think nostalgia is a major factor in his favor.

Nonetheless, and I know I repeat myself here, if anyone actually does find that mythical Democrat who can beat Trump, I don't see the point in all these elaborate plans for a brokered convention or stepping down or whatever are necessary.  The approach is simple.  Biden should:

1. Find the mythical Democrat who polls better than Trump;
2. Name him or her as candidate for Vice President;
3. Pledge to step down in his/her favor if he reaches the point of being unable to do the job;
4. Let the vice presidential candidate get out and have more visibility until people almost forget who the real candidate is.  This would actually use the age issue to Biden's advantage.  It would let people believe he was a mere figurehead and the vice presidential candidate was the real power.

As a matter of fact, I can even think of a new candidate.  She is a woman of color with real executive experience, federal experience, and even national security experience.  She is conservative enough to reach across the aisle to disaffected Republicans, and she is out of office now, so she will not have to step down from anything to take the job.

I refer, of course, to Nikki Haley.

Of course, it won't happen.  But I can dream.