Applying Trump's Razor to the Mar-a-Lago Raid: He's a Patrimonialist

But her emails!

The lessons of the Mar-a-Lago raid for Trump supporters should be obvious.  Don't go out on a limb to defend Donald Trump.  He will saw it off every time.

The lessons for our side are to remember, reality is almost never as juicy as your imagination.  I learned that the hard way with Trump/Russia.  My imagination filled in all sorts of sordid details.  The truth was bad, but nowhere near as bad as what I had imagined. And furthermore as someone (don't remember who) pointed out, our most lurid speculations play into the hands of Trump supporters.  They eagerly publish our side's most lurid fantasies, and then claim vindication when the truth turns out not to be quite that bad.  

So stop speculating that he wants to sell top secret documents to the highest bidder (they are too hot to handle) or that he is using them for blackmail, or that he is hiding something deeply incriminating.*  Instead, it is best to apply Trump's Razor -- that in trying to understand The Donald, but stupidest explanation that can be reconciled with the available facts is usually right.  The stupidest explanation here is that Trump took the documents home as a keepsake, a sort of hunting trophy.  He refused to turn them over because he had no real concept of what top secret documents are and thought that government documents were his own personal property.  He resisted turning them over because why should he turn over his personal property?  In other words, Trump was being a patrimonialist, treating the government as his private property and making no distinction between public and private patrimony. Nothing deeper or more sinister was at work.  Of course, what is the point in having a trophy unless you can show it off?  Especially if you have an ego like Donald Trump's.  No sinister plot is needed to make letting Donald Trump get his hands on top secret documents a very bad idea.**

And, incidentally, all this is further proof of why Ron DeSantis, though clearly dangerous, is a better choice than Trump. At least he understands that top secret documents are not his private property.

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*That last motive sounds particularly implausible.  It is not clear that Trump recognizes that anything can incriminate him.  Remember, this is the man who releases the readout of the Ukrainian extortion call because he thought it made him look good, who said that his call to pressure the Georgia Secretary of State to change the vote count was "almost as perfect," and who couldn't fathom what was wrong with a rampaging mob baying for his Vice President's blood.

**It also reminds me of Conor Friedersdorf's prophetic warning:

Absurdly, many seem to have convinced themselves that Trump, who won’t release his tax returns, as every presidential candidate has for decades, will be better on transparency; that a man whose finances we don’t even know, who used his charitable foundation to illegally funnel money to an attorney general investigating him for fraud, will be better on conflicts of interest; that an erratic man who blurts all manner of things out on Twitter and has shady ties to Vladimir Putin will somehow be a more trustworthy guardian of classified information. Trump is likely to be worse across all those metrics!