Shocking but Not Surprising

But her e-mails!

A phrase that gets used a lot in describing Donald Trump is "shocking but not surprising."  The Capitol Hill Riot/Insurrection fits in that category.  Nothing of the kind has ever happened before in the history of our democracy, which makes it shocking.  

But it is not surprising.  It is consistent with everything Trump has done since the election, and before.  Even before the election, he made clear that if he had lost, he would sue to overturn that outcome.  That alone is deeply abnormal.  It might have been understandable, or even successful, if the outcome had turned on one state.  But to overturn the outcome in not one, but at least three states was a bridge too far, so the courts unanimously refused.

The next step after the courts was Republican voting officials and state legislatures.  But aside from a small number of dissents in Michigan, that, too failed.

The next step was Congress, although that was doomed from the start. To overturn the Electoral College, both houses of Congress would have to vote to reject the outcome.  That clearly was not going to happen because Democrats had a majority in the House and enough Republicans had declared for Biden to guarantee a win there as well.  My guess was that Trump would lose both houses by a razor-thin margin.  

Trump also seems to have considered using the military or the Department of Homeland Security to overturn the election, but both organizations refused.

That left only one possibility -- violent insurrection by supporters.  I speculated that Trump might be willing to try even that after his attempt to overturn the result in Congress failed.  In that I was half-right.  He was, indeed, willing to overturn the election by violent insurrection, but not to wait until losing in Congress.  And I suppose that was predictable, really.  There was certainly plenty of talk about a protest on the day of the vote count, and plenty of warning that the protest might turn violent.  So the attempt to overturn the outcome by violent insurrection was also predictable.

Also predictable is that this may not be the last.  Insurrections take some time to plan, there will necessarily be a lag after the first attempt fails.  But there is talk of another violent incident on inauguration day -- or possibly January 17.

It ain't over yet.