Sunday, November 29, 2020

Reflections on the Election

 After every election, we hear media speculation that whichever party lost is doomed forever.  Invariably, the losing party makes a comeback and partisan politics continue -- as is normal for democracy.

But this time feels different.  This time really feels like the Democrats are doomed.

Yes, granted, we beat Donald Trump.  That has to count for something.  But usually a winning candidate for President has coattails, i.e., sweeps in down ballot candidates.  This time Republicans won everything but the Presidency.  And they won it in a way that truly makes me wonder if the Democrats can ever come back.

For as long as I can remember, every time the Democrats lost an election, it was taken as a sign that they had moved to far to the left and needed to move to the center.  And every time the Republicans lost an election, it was taken as a sign that they had moved too far to the center and needed to move right.  And now Republicans have elected a Q Anon believer.

Democrats used to see grounds for hope.  The rising Hispanic/Latino tide would favor Democrats.  Republicans' offensive nativism would keep them from winning the Hispanic/Latino vote.  Well, it turns out that blatant, bigoted nativism attracts Latino votes.  Even the Black vote is becoming less solidly Democratic -- and moving in favor of a blatant racist.

We used to believe that Democratic voters just weren't turning out enough, or that non-voters favored Democrats.  Well, turnout levels set records in this election -- and it favored Republicans.

We used to believe that we could win broadly across the board if we just mobilized enough.  Well, we mobilized like never before and have nothing to show for it.

We used to believe that incumbents won in good times and lost in bad times.  Well, 2020 has been the worst year in memory -- and it favored the incumbent party.

We used to believe that sooner or later denying reality would catch up with Republicans and reality came back to haunt them.  Well, here we are in the midst of a deadly pandemic, and Republicans have found that ignoring this reality is a winning message.

We used to think that if Republicans got too nutty, they might be able to win primaries, but it would hurt them in the general election.  Well, it appears that nutty Republicans do better in the general as well as the primary election.

We used to believe polls.  Well, it appears that polls are massively off -- Republicans always do better than polls suggest.

But above all, what dismays me is that the big, winning message for Republicans in down-ballot elections (that they are making in Georgia now) is that if Joe Biden is President, we need Republican control of Congress to hold those crazy radical socialist Democrats in check.  Yes, it would appear after everything else that Democrats are still viewed as the crazy ones. We hoped for the longest time that Democrats could avoid the apologetic cringe for being liberal and stand up and say it proudly.  Well, now it turns out that Democrats' only chance of winning is the apologetic cringe and the promise to do nothing.  Republicans, meanwhile, have a seemingly boundless appetite for crazy and pay no penalty for it.   

It would appear that if Democrats propose adding a public option to Obamacare they will be seen as ushering in a Communist tyranny.  Republicans can claim that their opponents are running a massive pedophilia ring and drinking the blood of babies and any attempt to portray that as radical will be seen as elitist snobbery and losing touch with Real Americans in the Heartland.

And there really doesn't seem to be any way for Democrats to hurt Republicans by painting them as crazy because Republicans' appetite for crazy is boundless and so many people share it.  Is there any degree of crazy that can hurt Republicans?  And the answer seems to be clear.  The only degree of crazy that can hurt Republicans is not enough.

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