Circling Back to Lawfare's Seven Theories

So it is time to circle back, once again to Lawfare's seven theories of Trump/Russia, from least to most sinister.

Theory 1: Coincidence:  This theory postulates that no element of the Trump-Russia mess is connected with any other.   This seemed implausible from the start.  Lawfare has since ruled it out in light of all the contacts that were later proven.

Theory 2: Trump attracted Russophiles:  This can be difficult to distinguish from Theory 1.  It says that Trump's pro-Russia pronouncement led to two things.  First, to Russia attempting to rig the election in his favor, and second to a lot of campaign staff with sleazy Russian ties.  At last notice  (August 2, 2018), Lawfare could not positively rule this one out, but was finding it increasingly unlikely.  At the very least, Trump and Russia appeared to have reached out to each other, although there was no evidence they had actually struck a deal.  Well, in Paul Manafort we now have a deal struck, although it remains unclear whether Manafort was acting on behalf of the campaign or gone rogue.

Theory 3: The Russian actions were anti-Clinton rather than pro-Trump:  Ruled out by subsequent information.

In short, the three least sinister theories have to be taken off the table.  What does that leave.

Theory 4: Russia infiltrated the campaign, but Trump didn't know about it:  Well, with the Manafort-Kilimnik, we definitely have proof of infiltration now, and at a very high level.  We don't have proof that Trump knew.

Theory 5: There was Russian infiltration and Trump knew or should have known:  The should have known by now goes without saying.  Proof that he actually knew remains missing.  But just how far can willful blindness go before it starts to be treated as constructive knowledge?

Theory 6: Kompromot:  Trump is unwillingly working for the Russians because they have a hold on him.  Not proven, but seems increasingly likely.  There is a lot of talk about a peepee tape, but it seems most unlikely that a peepee tape alone would be enough to compel this degree of submission.  Another possibility often mentioned is financial -- Trump has been laundering money for the Russians and they could expose his criminal activities.  This has the disadvantage from the Russian perspective, that if they expose Trump, they expose themselves.  Less dangerous for the Russians is simply the possibility that Trump as borrowed so much money from them that if they ever call in loans they could crush his empire like an empty eggshell.  It would mean giving up an important source of money laundering, though.  Sexual kompromot has the advantage from the Russian perspective of carrying no risk at all for Russia.  Furthermore, any kompromot involving Trump's business dealings might be unearthed by Congressional investigators.  Sex tapes will be a whole lot harder to find.  But it would have to be something a whole lot more serious than just a peepee party.

Theory 7: Trump is a Russian Agent:  Lawfare dismissed this a crazy talk, even though it is consistent with all known facts.  And now we know that the FBI has taken this possibility seriously.