Ten Days and Counting

Ten days to go before we breach the debt ceiling, and not has changed.  Well, one thing has changed.  My mood is becoming more anxious and wondering what if this really does not resolve.  It is starting to distract me from work.  But then again, I don't expect much of anything to happen this week, besides preening and posturing, so I really shouldn't be getting to anxious yet.  If Republicans are going to cave, it should happen about the beginning of next week, with a default breathing down their neck.  So, optimistic scenario is preening and posturing till about Friday, secret, frantic negotiations over the weekend for a token, symbolic concession by Democrats that will give nothing of substance but allow Republicans to save a modicum of face.  Then, almost clean combined CR and debt ceiling passes at the beginning of the week, Ted Cruz delays it as long as he can, and it narrowly passes the Senate to maximum speed signing.  Of course, a lot of things could go wrong.  Neither party might budge.  Ted Cruz might delay things long enough to force a breach.  The bill could take too long to inscribe and delay signing.  Anything.  But basically, I will fight to urge to panic this week.  If nothing is passed by Monday, it is time to give in to it.

In bad news, Senate Republicans are refusing to pass a bill unanimously passed by the House to give back pay to furloughed federal workers.  In further bad news, one of the most moderate House Republicans is backing off his support for a clean continuing resolution.  In what could be good news over the long run, but is too late to be much use now, the Chamber of Commerce is pledging to donate funds to defend sane Republicans against primary challenges.  They may even mount primary challenges against the truly insane. Although I am not overjoyed at the thought of the Republican Party as wholly owned subsidiary of the Chamber of Commerce, I prefer it to a Republican Party that has completely lost its mind.  Unfortunately, it looks to be a day late and a dollar short.

In short, hold tight.  This will be a rough week.