My Own Thoughts on the Jeffrey Epstein Files

So, since everyone else is weighing in on Trump and Epstein, what do I have to say on the subject?  

First and foremost, I would say the number one lesson here as that our side really doesn't understand MAGA and has no idea how Trump supporters will react to any of this and should not make predictions.  I don't think any of us had this on our bingo card, and yet here it is.  So, after warning against making any predictions here, let me offer a few:

What is in the files?

I don't know obviously, but I am going to guess nothing anywhere near as bad as our most lurid imagination.  I have two reasons for believing this.  One is that nothing is ever as bad as one's most lurid imagination makes it out to be.  The whole Russia scandal should have shown us that.  Don't make the same mistake twice.

The second reason is that it simply passes imagination to believe that if there is something truly explosive in the files, Trump is the only one damaged by it.  It seems only minimally more plausible that everyone damaged is someone Trump wants to protect.  So if there is anything really damaging there about people Trump wants to hurt, or even people he doesn't much care about one way or the other, why not make selective releases?  Release that part the hurt other people to sate the base's bloodlust while withholding the parts the hurt Trump and his allies.  

The lack of selective release strongly suggests that there is really not much there.

What should our side do about it?

We should refrain from wild speculation about what might be in the files and focus on the coverup instead of the crime.  We should ask Patel and Bondi when were they lying, when they said they were about to release the files, or when they said there was nothing there.  

Will this sink Trump?

No.  It's simply too early in the game to sink Trump.  I am betting that he manages to push this off the pages -- at least for now.  His base will not turn against him so soon, although its faith may have taken a blow.  I would expect Epstein stories to fade, at least for now, and Trump's popularity to stabilize in the low 40's for August, September, and October, and even improve a little.

Why?  Well, economic statistics for late July/early August showed some signs of softening in the economy and a slight uptick in inflation, but really nothing conclusive.  This could be the beginnings of an adverse supply shock or even true stagflation, or it could be just statistical noise.  I expect it to take about till November to become clear whether the economy is taking an actual hit.  Clearly, the direction of the economy will go a long way toward determining Trump's overall popularity.  

Also, even if this does turn out to be statistical noise and the economy is still humming along in November, November is also when the first effects of the One Butchered Barbarous Blunder will start to be felt, mostly in the form of reduced insurance subsidies.  That will be unpopular.  And if the economy tanks Trump's popularity badly enough, maybe, just maybe, the Epstein files will make a comeback.

When might it sink Trump?

My guess is, the very earliest possible is around March to June of next year.  Why March to June?  Because that is when the Republicans will be staring at the midterms and and wondering if they are in a hole that no gerrymander can dig them out of.  My guess is that would happen if we were starting to see serious, obvious stagflation.  I would also guess that Trump's peril would subside after June because then the midterms would be close at hand and a Republican civil war would be disastrous.

As for what might happen after the midterms, it is way to early to guess.

How will we know if Trump is losing his grip?

That is easy.  We will know Trump is starting to lose his grip if the right wing media starts expressing concerns about his physical and cognitive health, praise of George Washington for his statesmanship in getting out while he was still in peak form, and concern that after all Trump has achieved, it would be a shame for him to end up like Biden.  Whether this will be an actual prelude to 25th Amendment remedies or simply an attempt to persuade Trump not to run for a third term I could not say.

So those are the predictions of one who does not pretend to understand MAGA or to be able to guess what they will do.  We will see how this shakes out.