Why People Are Shrugging at Trump's Latest Posts

 

It's very simple, really.  People are ignoring the horrible things Donald Trump is threatening on Twitter Truth Social because they see them as so much hot air -- empty threats that he has no intention of acting on.

A lot of people opposed Trump in 2016 out of fear, seeing him as a dangerous loose cannon and wondering if he would be a Joe Arpaio, or imprison his opponents, or start a nuclear war, or default on the national debt or something equally crazy.  He didn't do any of those things.

People on our side say the reason he didn't do those things is that the grownups in the room stopped him, and he won't have the grownups this time.

I think there is some truth to that.  I also think he will not be able to go as far as some people fear.  He won't be able to lock up his political opponents because we still have an independent judiciary and trial by jury.  He won't be able to shut down hostile media outlets because he lacks the mechanism to do so. And plenty of his other nuttier pronouncements will also fail.  And there are numerous state and local governments and independent institutions to resist.

But he shows all intentions of evading the requirement for Senate confirmation of appointments by appointing "acting" officials and never submitting them for confirmation, and he can doubtless get a lot of cabinet picks who would never get past the Senate.  And it seems clear that Trump (or any Republican these days, frankly) has a serious plan in place to fire career professionals and replace them with political hacks.  This will leave considerable scope for harassment of political opponents, even if it stops short of criminal conviction.  It can also cause considerable damage to the efficiency of the federal government that will prove unpopular, but will also be much easier to cause than to cure.

I should also say that many people who support Trump today because they contrast the good times under his presidency with all the problems we have now have highly selective memories of the Trump presidency.  He had the longest government shut down so far, for instance.  Natural disasters, mass shootings, fentanyl, and countless other problems continued unabated.  And of course, there was 2020.  Yes, one can certainly argue that the disasters of 2020 were mere misfortunes and not Trump's fault.  But even so, they should be more than proof that Trump was not, by himself, any magical charm against bad things happening.  We have not recovered from 2020 as fast as one might wish.  But if 2020 could happen on Trump's watch, why should one think recovery on his watch would be any faster than it has been now?