I must admit I have not been following all the in’s and out’s of the Democrats’ $3.5 trillion dollar budget, or becoming very emotionally invested in it. Maybe that is burnout from Obamacare – I just can’t get that worked up over a policy initiative again. But I prefer to think that is because I have some sense of the crisis we are facing, and of political reality.
So far as I am concerned, the bipartisan infrastructure package and the Democratic budget plan fit in the category of nice to have, but just not that essential. I phone banked for the Democratic candidates for the Georgia Senate to keep Republicans from blocking what was really essential, but I was quite prepared to settle for that and not expect anything else.
At the time, I thought two things were really essential – getting out vaccines, and passing COVID relief to mitigate the economic impact. Everything else was expendable so long as we could get that.
Well, in the clear light of hindsight, that was a mistake. What was really essential was (1) getting out COVID vaccines, (2) passing COVID relief, and (3) dealing with any other crises that came up. In the clear light of hindsight, at least four crises should have been foreseeable from day one (1) the border, (2) withdrawal from Afghanistan), (3) the usual natural disasters and (4) the debt ceiling. The delta variant of COVID was not a foreseeable, crisis, but it is present and we have to deal with it.
So, how do I grade this Administration?
Getting out vaccines. Grade: A. They did a fine job. Anyone who wants the vaccine can have it.
Passing COVID relief. Grade: A. We have given the economy the boost necessary to recover.
Withdrawal from Afghanistan. Grade F. We were completely caught off guard by the speed of the collapse and unready to get our people out. Some people would raise Biden's grade to a D minus or even a D based on the catch-up evacuation. Color me unconvinced. The evacuation was too little too late and a bureaucratic nightmare. That being said, the Taliban has shown some interest in keeping working relations with us and we have some leverage. We are not going to get the Taliban to stop being the Taliban. But with careful use of our leverage and skillful diplomacy (neither of which the Biden Administration has displayed much, but we can always hope), we may convince them to let our people out. In that case I would be willing to raise Biden's grade to a D or even a C minus.
The border. Grade F. Any number of people have commented that Biden’s approach was the exact opposite of what would make sense. Whatever else one thinks of Remain in Mexico, it was a huge political success. It took the border out of the headlines and out of our discourse. People who were outraged at the right of asylum seekers mistreated inside the US could not muster much interest in what was going on in Mexico. Go ahead and call that cruel and inhumane and an outrage. There are some political facts of life we simply have to live with. There are also practical facts, like that the US simply cannot take in everyone who wants to come here. Any number of people have commented that Biden took the exact opposite approach from what he should have done. His actions were to withdraw Remain in Mexico on day one. When chaos broke out at the border, he panicked and reduced refugee admissions. Instead, he should have kept Remain in Mexico while increasing refugee admissions. Refugees, after all, have already been vetted and processed in third countries and are being let in in a controlled manner. That is what we want to achieve at the border.* Certainly we could send assistant to people waiting to be processed. (Make it part of COVID relief if necessary). We could make staying in Mexico an alternative to being deported to a dangerous situation. (With all necessary executive procedures, which takes time). And we could expand the number of immigration judges. (That would probably command bipartisan support). But Remain in Mexico is going to have to remain until our side comes up with a humane but controlled alternative.
Natural disasters. Grade A. Ever since the Hurricane Katrina debacle, Presidents have been conscious of the need to manage natural disasters well. With the exception of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, they have.
The debt ceiling. Grade unknown so far. But a C at best. It should have been obvious from day one that more debt ceiling brinkmanship was absolutely predictable. Republicans do it every time a Democrat is in the White House Why didn't Democrats include the debt ceiling in the reconciliation bill? Why didn't they deal with a procedure that apparently takes a minimum of two weeks more than two weeks before a looming default? If Democrats abolish the debt ceiling altogether or raise it to 100 quadrillion dollars, I will give them an A. If they manage to kick the can past the 2024 election, I will give them a B. If they raise it enough to set off a future showdown but don't do serious damage, a C. If the economy takes a hit from a flirtation with default, a D. And if we actually default, and F multiple minus.
Delta variant. Grade D. Clearly we have a disaster on our hands, but I don't altogether blame Biden for two reasons. One is that large numbers of people are doing everything in their power to sabotage all COVID mitigation attempts. The other is that even countries that have done much better than we have are still having secondary waves of infections due to the delta variant. The good news is that promising treatment is now in the works. The bad news is that we have a disastrous shortage of home testing. We need to clear regulatory burdens to home tests, and we need to do it yesterday. More on this soon.
So come on, Mr. President, get on it. COVID, debt ceiling, border, getting our people out of Afghanistan, and future crises. Everything else is mere luxury.
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*It was also highly predictable that the federal courts, which had already found Donald Trump's immediate overturning of Dreamers arbitrary and capricious would likewise find overturning Trump's policy arbitrary and capricious.
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