So, I might as well give the latest update on COVID in New Mexico, and it looks good. We have had 795,247 tests done out of a population of about 2.1 million. This does not necessarily mean that over a third of the population has been tested; some of these are repeat tests.
Our positivity rate has been falling steadily and is now at 3.29%. New tests are well under 3% positive.
Death rates, after holding steady at about 4.5% early on, started falling. They hit the lowest in mid-August at 3.03% and have now stabilized and are moving up slightly. I do not think this is necessarily a bad sign. Death are, after all, a lagging indicator. A rising death rate may simply mean the system is not being overwhelmed with new cases.
The hospitalization rate was steady at about 17% earlier in the epidemic and also started falling, below 16%, 15%, 14%, and 13%. It now appears to be stabilizing a little above 12%. The absolute number of people hospitalized is way down. After peaking around 223, it is now in the 60's.
Another lagging indicator is looking promising. The percentage of infected people who have recovered is over 50% and rising. Reported recoveries are almost certainly fewer than actual recoveries.
The worst outbreak in the Albuquerque area is past. Ditto Sandoval County to the north of Albuquerque, where the pueblos are. The worst also appears to be past in the Navajo northwest part of the state. Few new cases are coming in, but death rates remain the highest in the state.
The new center appears to be in the eastern parts of the state. Incoming from Texas, maybe. Typically of a new outbreak, the death rate there is low. I expect it to get higher. The death rate in Las Cruces, anomalously low before, is creeping up, though still well below the state average. The real anomaly now is Santa Fe, with over 800 cases, while deaths held steady a 3 for a long time and are now at 4. I don't know what to make of it.
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