Will There Be a Secondary COVID Outbreak?

Will there be a secondary COVID outbreak?

Yes.

Every other country that has opened up (or suppressed the disease without closing) has had secondary outbreaks, so I see not reason to believe we will be an exception.

The question is how bad it will be.  I have no idea.

But I can make a few more predictions.

The vast majority of seemingly risky activity will not lead to secondary outbreaks.  All we go well -- until it doesn't.

Sooner or later something will lead to a secondary outbreak.  (Or multiple outbreaks).   No one has any way of foreseeing what will lead to the secondary outbreak, or when or where.  (Riots and demonstrations are a good candidate, though).

The real question will be whether we have a good enough test-and-trace system in place by then to suppress the outbreak quickly.  And whether we have learned enough about what is and is not safe to do so without too much disruption.  I am optimistic on the second question.

I have no idea about the first.