Brexit is Going About How I Expected

When Salon used the purported Venn Diagram on the left to show the options for Brexit, I was unduly annoyed at the abuse of Venn Diagrams, but I could see what the outcome would be.  The diagram showed three alternatives.  A deal between Britain and the EU would be acceptable to Leave voters and would not crash the British economy, but was not acceptable to the EU, which wanted Britain to suffer.  A new referendum (with Leave probably failing) was acceptable to the EU and would not crash the British economy, but was not acceptable to Leave voters.  And crashing out without a deal was acceptable to both Leave voters and the EU, but would crash the British economy.

I could see how that was going to end up.  Either a deal or a referendum would force someone to back down in a humiliating fashion, and that obviously wasn't going to happen.  So if everyone dug in their heals, the only possible outcome was for Britain to crash out without a deal and let the chips fall where they may.

Of course, I was wrong about some things.  The EU did, after all, agree to give Britain a deal.  But Leave voters and leaders found the terms humiliating and unacceptable, so they turned it down.  The Brits needed some time to dither and delay in order to accept the pain of a no-deal exit as preferable to the humiliation of any deal the EU would offer, but they appear to have gotten there.  The delay also served the useful purpose of allowing the Brits to stockpile supplies for the initial shock of exit, so Brexit will doubtless be less painful that it would have been if it had happened sooner.

I recommended that what the Brits needed was a top-notch demagogue to sufficiently stoke their anger at being made an example of that they could see Brexit as a sort of war -- a replay of the WWI with their leader as a latter day Winston Churchill, the German-led EU as the Nazis, and the hardships associated with a no-deal leave as sort of like bombing during the Blitz.  That is, in fact, just what is happening now.  Although the British are not usually distinguished for their demagogues, three appear to have risen to the occasion -- Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn, and Nigel Farage.  I am inclined to see Johnson as the least bad choice among them -- someone we can hope will direct British anger only at the EU and not at immigrants (as with Farage) or Jews (as with Corbyn).

Of course, I made the same suggestion to the Greeks when facing the possibility of Grexit.  They should combine skilled economic planning for leaving the euro (but not the EU) with a top-notch demagogue to treat the EU/Germans as Nazis and the ensuing hardships as the equivalent of WWII.  Admittedly, good planning and good demagogues do not often go together.  And, in the end, the Greeks backed down, not ready yet -- emotionally or technocratically -- to deal with the upheaval that would follow.  Perhaps if they had dragged out the negotiations for longer they might have both made adequate preparations to soften the blow as much as possible (though it would still have been severe) and to stoke public anger far enough the accept the Grexit and ensuing hardships.

Well, the Brits have had more than long enough now to make plans, and long enough to build public anger to where it can take No Deal.  They have also managed a reasonable division of labor -- Theresa May as the sober leader who made necessary plans to soften the impact of a no-deal Brexit, and Boris Johnson as the demagogue who will fire up the public to accept the pain of impact, whatever that may be.