Daniel Drezner on Impeachment

Daniel Drezner has another interesting article on the politics of impeachment.  Trump appears to have calculated that in impeachment, Democrats are in a dilemma they cannot win.  If they do not impeach, they will look weak.  If they do impeach, they will look vindictive and partisan.  So he sets out the provoke the Democrats to impeach him on the theory that the more he provokes, the weaker Democrats will look if they don't impeach, and if they do impeach, Republicans and independents will rally to him.

Drezner points out that there is a potential flaw in this assumption.  The flaw might be called the Fifth Avenue factor.  In other words, suppose that all else fails to provoke the Democrats to impeach.  So Trump shoots someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue.  Now granted, that will certainly make Democrats look weak if they don't impeach.  But will it make Democrats look vindictive and partisan if they do impeach?

The underlying assumption is that no matter how hard Trump tries to provoke Democrats to impeach him, the Democrats will always be blamed if they proceed.  Or, put differently, that there is nothing Trump can do that will swing public opinion against him -- not even (hypothetically) shooting someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue.

If the assumption that Trump is trying to provoke impeachment is correct, we just might find just what the absolute floor is to his support.