Monday, May 27, 2019

Iran's Options

So, its economy being strangled, and building a nuclear bomb impossible without starting a war, what options does Iran have?  Naturally, the Trump Administration is offering two -- capitulation or revolution.  But looking from the Iranian perspective, these are things to avoid.  What else is there?

I have read various suggestions such as an escalation in terrorist attacks, sabotage of rival countries' oil productions, or closing the Straits of Hormuz.  But I have never heard anyone yet propose what seems the most obvious option -- a mutual defense treaty with Russia.

Granted, it is not clear that an alliance of this type would make any sense.  It has worked in the case of Cuba, with a Russian subsidy propping up the Cuban economy, but just of that subsidy has taken the form of cheap oil.  Since Russia and Iran are both oil exporters, an oil subsidy would be worthless.  And I confess to not knowing enough about the two countries' respective economies to know how much of a subsidy would be needed and whether Russia can afford it.  But given Iran's desperate situation, I imagine they will take whatever subsidy they can get.

The most obvious advantage to Iran from such an alliance is that it would eliminate the risk of war.  To start a war with Iran would be to start a war with Russia, and Russia has nukes.  So Iran would be safe from direct attack and receive some sort of subsidy, however inadequate.  It also seems a safe assumption that the Russians would encourage Iran's "malign activities" such as occupying Syria and subsidizing Hamas and Hezbollah and, indeed, provide a subsidy.

Of course, there would be disadvantages.  It seems a safe assumption that one condition of such an alliance would be giving up any nuclear ambitions.  The last thing the Russians would want would be for a potentially obstreperous ally to get its own nuclear weapons and become even more independent-minded.  And the Iranians would have to renounce any really aggressive and provocative behavior like interfering with oil shipments or closing the Straits.  But I don't think Iranians would consider that to be all that great a sacrifice.  Interfering with oil shipments or closing the Straits of Hormuz would be a sort of Sampson-and-the-pillars tactic, a mutually assured destruction that ceases to be necessary with a Russian alliance.

And what of Iran's rivals?  Well, they would have to deal with a more deeply-entrenched Iranian government, one they can no longer remove or start a war with, and one that will continue its "malign activities" more or less unchanged.  But they will have the assurance that Iran will not get a nuke and not do anything too crazy.

I wonder if they will consider it worthwhile.

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