Quick Follow Up on Korea

I am getting mixed reports on Korea.  On the one hand, North Korea is is offering a verified plan to destroy its nuclear testing site and stop unannounced missile testing.  This is altogether to the good, although it must might be because the North Koreans believe they have already completed what they consider necessary to have a credible deterrent.

On the other hand Secretary of State Michael Pompeo is proclaiming that he expects to walk away from the June summit with a plan for North Korea to give up its entire nuclear arsenal and all nuclear capacity.  Each step of the plan will be followed by a measure of sanctions relief, complete relief to be delivered only after complete disarmament.  This article even notes the contradiction, commenting:

Pompeo and other US officials have repeatedly said they are seeking North Korea's permanent verifiable denuclearization, while North Korean officials have said that they have already achieved their nuclear objectives.

So I suppose it is possible that Trump and Kim will walk away from the summit with a plan in place to scrap North Korea's entire nuclear arsenal.  Maybe some serious saber rattling was all that was needed to bring about complete capitulation.  Or, more probably, maybe tougher sanctions really are bringing North Korea to its knees.  But all this strikes me as unlikely.  Changes that dramatic do not usually take place in the timeframe of a few months.  Usually long and tedious negotiations are needed first.   North Koreans have long believed that nuclear weapons are an essential deterrent to regime change.  And the North Korean government held onto power under conditions of famine and mass starvation in the past.  But if I am wrong and North Korea is willing to give up its entire nuclear arsenal in exchange for sanctions relief, this is an extraordinary achievement and I will have to admit I was wrong about the Trump Administration on this one issue at least.

I would guess it more likely that the North Koreans believe they have achieved a credible deterrent and are willing freeze their nuclear program, halt testing, and perhaps enter into the long, tedious sort of arms control negotiations that were common during the Cold War.  If they are willing to do so, and to do so verifiably, this will be altogether to the good and will be a considerable diplomatic triumph for the Trump Administration.  It should certainly be possible for the parties at the summit to issue a joint statement vague enough to be taken as complete disarmament by our side and a freeze by the North Koreans.

But the real danger is this.  What if the North Koreans are willing to agree to a verifiable freeze and end to testing, but not to giving up their nuclear weapons, while we believe that they are willing to give up their entire arsenal.  Ultimately this mismatch will have to come to light.  That is when relations begin to deteriorate and move to the next phase of the euphoria-disillusionment-realism cycle the so often accompanies a diplomatic engagement.  And, if I am right about this, the important thing will be NOT to succumb to despair when we see how far the sides are apart, but to continue and achieve what is achievable.