Although people like me tend to assume that putting someone in charge of foreign policy who knows absolutely nothing about it and who bases foreign policy decisions on who flatters him most cannot possibly go well, I have to admit that nothing disastrous has happened so far, and that at least to major foreign policy triumphs may be in the works, although the old rule about not counting your chickens till they hatch still applies.
Triumph One: Korea. North and South Korea have held a summit, and we will be holding a summit with North Korea in a month or two. I was as alarmed as anyone over Trump's saber rattling toward North Korea. I also thought it unfortunate that the South Koreans voted for the conciliatory party just as tensions were escalating, although given the scandals surrounding the hardline party, it was probably inevitable. But it actually looks as though belligerence by the US and conciliation by the South Koreans is quite an effective combination, a good game of good cop/bad cop. So good job all around (so far).
Just for the record, I am not one of those people who think that just talking to a hostile government is an immense unilateral concession, or that we should never negotiate until the other side surrenders. I had some concerns about the Trump Administration lacking finesse to plan the summit out in advance, but they actually seem to be doing a reasonably good job of it.
My sense of caution would be this. After observing any number of summits in the Middle East, I have found that they follow a certain pattern. During the summit and in the immediate aftermath, a mood of euphoria takes hold. A general honeymoon is underway and all things seem possible. We are seeing that today with talk of North Korea giving up its nuclear arsenal, the two Koreas signing a peace treaty, and the US withdrawing its forces from the Korean peninsula. But let's not get carried away just yet.
Invariably the mood of euphoria is followed by an outbreak of disillusionment as things don't go as quickly and smoothly as seemed possible during those first heady days. Inevitably it will turn out that Kim Jong-un is not willing to give up his entire nuclear arsenal in exchange for promises of sanctions relief somewhere down the line, and that the prospect of the US leaving South Korea will generate a huge outcry. All will seem futile and tensions will rise again.
The secret to success is to be able to ride out the euphoria and the disillusionment. Recognizing that disillusionment is itself a phase to be expected and not a sign that all is lost is critical. Because if one can do that, then when the disillusionment fade, it will be possible to finally accomplish something, even if the "something" is less than one hoped for in those early, heady days. I have no idea what can be accomplished in Korea, but I am betting that persuading Kim to give up his entire nuclear arsenal is not going to be on the menu. But freezing it, or scaling back, or reducing tensions between the two powers are all worth accomplishing. And even if the only effect is to scale back tensions to what they were when North Korea first started testing bombs and rockets and Trump first started texting, that will be well worth doing.
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