Sherlock Holmes: A Scandal in Bohemia

 

Things have been anxious lately, so what do I do to be calm?  Read through the complete works of Sherlock Holmes, of course.  

We have gotten through Arthur Conan Doyle's first two novels -- A Study in Scarlet and Sign of the Four.  Next comes The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes, a series of short stories.  In fact, although Doyle wrote a few more novels, he appears to have decided that the short story was truly his medium.

The first short story is A Scandal in Bohemia.  It introduces a character who has fascinated many later writers of adaptations -- Irene Adler.  For all that her character is played up in later adaptations, she appears in only one work, a short story.  Moreover, she and Holmes do not know each other.  They meet only three times, briefly, each time with one party in disguise and the other unaware.  Adler marries another man and the story ends with her flight.  She apparently dies some time later offstage under uncertain circumstances.  Watson refers to her as "the late Irene Adler, of dubious and questionable memory."  We do not find out what happened to her.  The story takes place in 1888 and she was born in 1858 making her 30 years old at the time, so she died prematurely.  Watson also emphasizes the Holmes never loved Adler.  Holmes knew love mostly as a motive for crimes.  But he did respect and admire her and refer to her as "the woman."

I suspect that Doyle first tried to end the series at the end of the last novel by marrying Watson off and having him move out.  It must be emphasized how much of an improvement this is in Watson's life.  When Watson first met Holmes, his health was in ruins and he was living on a military invalid pension, not knowing anyone in London, too ill to go out and with no one to visit him.  Watson had nothing to do but observe his roommate and learn about him.  With his marriage, Watson acquires not only a wife, but his own household.  Presumably he begins building a social circle.  He also returns to the practice of medicine.  In short, he has his life back.  But he can still drop in on Holmes.

Holmes' latest client calls himself a Bohemian nobleman, but Holmes recognizes him as the king.  (We are not told how, but he is six feet six inches tall, which must be distinguishing).  In this case, there is no murder and no mystery.  There is, I suppose, a crime, or several.  The circumstances are plain.  The king had an affair with an opera singer (now retired) named Irene Adler and was so indiscrete as to allow himself to be photographed with her.  He is now to marry a Scandinavian princess.  Irene Adler is threatening to reveal the photograph when the engagement is announced.  Paying blackmail is hopeless -- she doesn't want money; she wants to ruin him.  So blackmail is a crime, except that this is not exactly blackmail.  At least some of the king's attempts to get the photograph back also sound like crimes.  He has had people break into her house twice, diverted her luggage once, and waylaid her twice.  Hm.  The photograph is portrait sized and framed, so it is not something Irene Adler would hide on her person.

So, there is no mystery as to what happened.  The only mystery is how Holmes will find the photograph.

He disguises as a stable groom and mingles among the other stable grooms in the neighborhood to pick up the latest gossip about Irene Adler.  He also follows her when she goes to the Church of St. Monica and learns that she has gone there to marry her lawyer, Godfrey Norton!  The matter is so hasty and so secretive that the clergyman insisted on having a witness, and Holmes was the first person at hand to serve!  The marriage is secret, and the parties go their separate ways.  Holmes comments that the photograph is now a double-edged weapon.  Irene Adler presumably no more wants her husband to see it than the king wants his prospective wife to see it.  That the marriage takes place just as Holmes begins watching her seems like an extraordinary coincidence, but let that go.  Holmes still wants to find the photograph.

To do so, he enlists Watson in a obviously staged seen outside Irene's house.  A few street louts get into a fight just has Miss Adler steps out of her carriage.  Holmes, now dressed as a clergyman, rushes to her defense and falls to the ground, fake blood streaming from his face.  The brawlers run off, and some bystanders persuade Irene Adler to take Holmes into her sitting room.  He gestures her to open the window.  Watson waits outside with a smoke bomb to throw in.

I do not know whether he was seized with compunction at that moment for the part he was playing, but I know that I never felt more heartily ashamed of myself in my life than when I saw the beautiful creature against whom I was conspiring, or the grace and kindliness with which she waited upon the injured man. And yet it would be the blackest treachery to Holmes to draw back now from the part which he had intrusted to me. I hardened my heart, and took the smoke-rocket from under my ulster. After all, I thought, we are not injuring her. We are but preventing her from injuring another.

Watson throws the smoke bomb and cries fire.  A commotion ensues, in which Holmes escapes.  As they walk home, Holmes explains that when a woman thinks her house is on fire, she will reach for whatever she values most -- in this case, the photograph.  It was behind a sliding panel by the bell-pull.  Holmes did not take it because the coachman was watching him.  As they arrive home, an unknown passer-by said good night, and Holmes thinks the voice sounds familiar.

Early the next morning they summon the king and let him know of the situation.  The king is still clearly in love with Miss Adler.  He responds with jealousy when he hears about her marriage and insists that she cannot love her new husband.  Holmes points out that if she does, she will no longer have any reason to be jealous of the king's prospective marriage or to break it up.  They head to her house at 8:00 a.m., assuming she will not be up yet and they will be able to take the photograph.*  Upon arriving, however, they find that she has fled and taken the photograph with her.  Instead, she leaves a letter, in which she explains that the mysterious passer-by was her, in male disguise.  Recognizing how dangerous Holmes could be, she and her husband have fled with the photograph, which she will not reveal, but will keep as insurance if the king ever bothers he again.  In place of the photograph of herself and the king, she leaves a photograph of only herself.

The king assures them that they have nothing to fear, her word is inviolate.  Again, his admiration for her beauty, her intelligence, her resourcefulness, and her resolve make clear that the king is still in love with her.  "Would she not have made an admirable queen? Is it not a pity that she was not on my level?”  Holmes responds that she does, indeed, appear to have been on a very different level.  And he asks to keep the photograph and cherishes it in honor of the only woman to outwit him.

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*What sort of hours did people keep in London at this time?  In the upcoming story The Speckled Band, Watson is awakened at 7:15 and thinks it outrageously early.  

PS

 Oh, yes and one other point about the war on Iran.  Not only does the Israel tail appear to be wagging the US dog, but the evidence rather strongly suggests that Trump and Netanyahu are working at cross purposes. 

 Trump's original goal appears to have been something like what we did in Venezuela -- leave the machinery of government in place and just change out the name at the top.  Trump's reasoning is that destroying the state can create a godawful mess.  We fired all of the Baathist Party in Iraq and they ended up turning into ISIS.  And much as I hate the man, he has a good point there.  As such, he would very much like to find someone he can make a deal with.

Netanyahu, by contrast, appears to want to destroy the Iranian state and doesn't care what a mess that creates.  Every time someone comes along who might make a deal, the Israelis kill him.  The goal appears to be to thwart any deal that could end the war until the Iranian state is destroyed altogether.

One would think that sooner or later, this will lead to conflict between the allies.

Not Very Original Thoughts on the Iran War

 

I don't have anything very original to say about the war in Iran, but it is hard to think about anything else these days, so let me offer some unoriginal thoughts.

Beware the cornered animal.

Obviously not an original observation, but Trump did not expect this kind of retaliation.  He did not expect it because he had hit Iran before, fairly hard, and not received a strong response.  In his first term, Trump killed Qassim Suleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Iran made only the most token retaliation.  Last year he launched the 12 Days War to wreck Iran's nuclear program and Iran barely even made that.  This led Trump to assume that the Iranian regime was made of pushovers who would not strike back no matter what.  What he failed to take into account was the desperation of a government that truly has nothing to lose.  When you tell an enemy that you want their head on a platter and will not settle for anything less, you can expect an extremely hostile and belligerent response.  

Iran's response may be an extreme example, but the phenomenon is universal.  It is also a thing to keep in mind when we consider the merits of punishing Trump, his inner circle, and ICE.  Yes, they all richly deserve it, and yes, it has value as a deterrent.  But many a dictator has been allowed to escape punishment to avoid triggering the cornered animal response.  A thing to consider.

Harsh measures can strengthen resolve.  This cuts both ways.

By destroying the top leadership and making clear we considered the regime's existence unacceptable, we made it resolve to resist at all costs because there was no alternative.  Maybe the people will rise up if we destroy the Iranian military but spare civilian targets.  But heavy bombing is not normally conducive to domestic rebellion.

The same applies to Iran's opponents.  The Arabian Gulf states warned against war because they feared that they would be targets.  Now that they have been hit, Gulf Arabs are understandably furious at Iran. Iran hitting hotels and apartment buildings was a clear war crime.  Indeed, even the Iranian leadership appears to have recognized such strikes as counterproductive, apologized, and promised to stick to military targets. But even if we make the dubious assumption that the Iranians will keep their word, the Arabs are still in an extraordinarily awkward spot.  They invited US military bases to protect them from Iran.  The bases led them to be targeted.  But what choice do they have now?  If they kick the US out, they will be completely vulnerable to Iranian domination.  And this is to say nothing of Iran's attacks on Arab oil production.  The laws of war are unclear on the matter, and the devastating effect on Arab economies is all too obvious.  Again, Arabs are furious over this.

Israelis are also understandably furious.  And so is much of the rest of the world at seeing its economy attacked.  Which leads to a closely related point.

Wars like this are easier to get into than out of.

Look, given the balance of forces, it seems safe to assume we will eventually emerge with something that could be called victory.  My guess is that if there were a face-saving way for Trump to declare victory and stand down, he would take it.  The problem is that neither Iran nor Israel appears willing to agree to such an arrangement any time soon, and that so long as the opposing party is willing and able to strike back, the war is not ended.

Worse yet, things like this tend to spread.  After all, it is not just our economy that is being affected by this war; it is every oil importing economy across the world.  Given how Trump has been treating our allies, it is entirely understandable that they may not want to join us in forcing open the Straits of Hormuz.  Given the stakes, they may not have the choice.

Even worse -- we have used up so many anti-missile defensive weapons that we are being forced to move them out of South Korea.  It seems likely that the North Koreans will take advantage of the situation.  Suddenly, we are starting to get a WWIII vibe.

Russia

I don't believe that Trump undertook this war as a favor to his friend Pooty to build up Russia's war chest against Ukraine.  There would be easier ways to assist Putin, such as just lifting sanctions, cutting off intelligence sharing with Ukraine, or even directly assisting Russia.  All evidence points to Trump being genuinely caught off guard by spiking oil prices and wanting to bring them down.  That being said, he may very well view any advantage this war gives Putin as a side benefit.

Also, I don't think it is crazy to dismiss Russian intelligence assistance to Iran as an ordinary incident of war -- an expected response to our intelligence assistance to Ukraine.  And yes, the situations are comparable.  Russia is the aggressor in Ukraine.  We are the aggressor in Iran.  Both sides appear to be giving intel on appropriate military targets.  Admittedly, the Iranian regime is much worse than the government of Ukraine and more deserving of being overthrown.  But then again, the Russian homeland has been hit.  Ours has not.

So I understand Trump declining to be outraged over Russia's assistance to Iran.  On the other hand, all of this point to the strategic incoherence of pursuing a policy that is simultaneously pro-Russian and anti-Iran.  Maybe, just maybe, this war will drive home even to Trump the incoherence of such a policy.  That would be a good thing.  Unless it leads to WWIII.

Domestic politics.

Domestic politics clearly are a factor here.  This does not mean that the war is just a ruse to distract from the Epstein files.  The whole obsession with the Epstein files is just a replay of the error we made in Russiagate -- looking for the one silver bullet that will slay the Trump monster.  There is no such silver bullet.  But I do believe that Trump is focusing on foreign policy at least in part because of growing signs that his domestic power is slipping.  The Epstein files are part of that, but by no means all.  Consider:

• More and more material is being released from the Epstein files, including credible evidence that Trump physically and sexually assaulted a girl under 16.
• The House Oversight Committee has issued a bipartisan subpoena to Pam Bondi to testify about the Epstein files.
• High power law firms appear to be prevailing in their suit to keep Team Trump from punishing them for their opposition.
• Universities are also prevailing in their suits against Trump,
• The Supreme Court has largely blocked deployment of the National Guard without the consent of governors.
• The Supreme Court has also blocked Trump's tariffs, at least in their most arbitrary and capricious form.
• Prosecution of political opponents has failed.
• Anthropic is defying the Pentagon and taking it to court.
• Thus far, Senate Republicans are refusing to yield to Trump's pressure to block the filibuster to pass the SAVE Act.
• Republicans are clearly bracing for large-scale losses in the midterms.
• Opponents of ICE have landed their first Cabinet-level scalp in Kristi Noem.* Admittedly, her proposed replacement is not better, but we have proven that sufficiently intense and sustained outrage can remove a Cabinet Secretary, which may have an effect on her successor.
• ICE appears to be behaving marginally better, at least for now.

This is not to say that all is well.  ICE continues to expand in personnel, budget, prison network, and surveillance capabilities, and to treat opposition as terrorism.  Democracy is not safe until that ends.  And we don't yet know what tricks Trump has up his sleeve for the midterm elections, or how he will respond if he loses.

And let's face it.  This war just might be what Trump needs to revive his domestic fortunes.  Consider:

The war has proven to be expensive and Trump is seeking new funding.  Democrats have pledged to oppose it, but does anyone seriously believe that Congress will deny our troops funding for the munitions they need to defend themselves while they are being shot at?  Particularly if Iran shows no willingness to stop shooting?

The risk of Iranian terrorist attacks will massively increase pressure on Democrats to fund the Department of Homeland Security.  There have already been three terrorist attacks -- all apparently isolated instances not backed by the Iranian regime, but alarming nonetheless.

And there is some evidence that support for the war is rising and the rally-round-the-chief effect is taking hold.  And here is the thing.  A long, drawn-out war almost always becomes unpopular, but the effect can take years.  A quick and easy victory can give a leader a boost, but it is rarely more than a short-lived sugar high.  But US bases being attacked, troops being killed, terrorist attacks at home, and the like -- well, see the first point above about initial hardship strengthening resolve.  A serious war may be just what Trump needs to revive his domestic popularity.  Yes, it will eventually decline if the war drags on for years, but that is a remote concern.  And it may not last long after a successful conclusion -- see GHW Bush, Churchill, etc.  But that just gives Trump incentive to prolong the war, at least in the medium term.

Buckle up, folks.  Things could get rough.

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*Really, their second scalp counting Greg Bovino.  And there is a third scalp as well in that ICE Barbie appears to be taking her ICE Ken with her.  But Noem is the only Cabinet-level scalp so far.